Iowa is used to being in the middle of the political spotlight, as it has long been known as the state where presidential candidates officially start their quest for the White House. But with the fervor surrounding the Iowa caucuses long gone, the spotlight is now shining on the state's four hotly contested congressional races, which have all been shaped by redistricting.
Over the past couple of years, a number of state legislatures across the country have been in a knock-down, drag-out fight over redistricting, trying to rewrite district lines in order to maximize lawmakers' chances of staying in office. [See how the GOP has made gains among independents in advance of 2012.]
In Iowa, the battle has been taken out of legislators' hands, leaving the heavy lifting to a non-partisan state agency, with the state legislators giving the plan a simple up or down vote.
"It keeps the races interesting," says Christopher Larimer, a political science professor at Northern Iowa University. "It is almost like a game of chicken. The legislators can send it back for another draft, but then they risk it coming back worse for their party."
With fewer people in the state, Iowa had to eliminate one of its five congressional districts. Republican Rep. Steve King, who previously held Iowa's fifth, moved into the fourth congressional district, and in order to avoid an incumbent GOP matchup, King's move forced fellow Republican Rep. Tom Latham out of the fourth and into the third.
In Iowa, two of the districts lean Democratic and two lean Republican, but the large number of independent voters in the state keep all four races from being a sure thing.
In the race that will pick up the most national attention, King is facing stiff competition, which is something the outspoken GOP hardliner isn't used to. [Check out a roundup of this month's political cartoons.]
King is adored by constituents and has earned a reputation as a pro-life budget hawk who strongly opposes illegal immigration, calling for the construction of a concrete wall along the Mexican border.
"The congressman has always had a very clear set of values," says Jake Ketzner, King's campaign manager. "If you ask a voter in this district where he stood, they'd say he's a consistent conservative."
King, who has won re-election four times, is facing strong opposition from Iowa's former first lady, Christie Vilsack, whose husband, Tom, currently serves as the Secretary of Agriculture. Vilsack has outraised King so far, boasting nearly $1.8 million compared to King's $1.6 million.
"This is the most competitive race in the state," says University of Iowa political science professor Tim Hagle. "With high name recognition and money behind her, it seems Vilsack has a better shot than King's opponents have had in the past."
Ketzner says while voters know Vilsack's name, they don't know what she stands for.
"Once the issues come up, it is going to be difficult for her to survive in a conservative district," Ketzner says.
Vilsack campaign manager Jessica Vanden Berg argues that she has laid out a concise campaign, focused on expanding green energy in the state, expanding educational opportunities and laying out the differences between the two on women's issues.
"This is a different sort of election for him," Vanden Berg says, "There are major, major differences between the candidates. With her own unique brand, we are feeling good about where we are."
Moving South, the race in the third district pits Latham against the current incumbent, Democrat Rep. Leonard Boswell. Latham currently holds a more than $1.2 million fundraising advantage over Boswell, and while the district leans to the right, pundits are not counting Boswell out.
"Every two years, people write Boswell off in his competitive races. But you never know. Boswell always seems to come back," Larimer says.
Boswell campaign manager Kevin McTigue says the Democrat built out an extensive ground game and is playing catchup by making between 2,000 and 3,000 calls to voters per day. McTigue blames Latham's cozy relationship with Speaker of the House John Boehner for Boswell's fundraising troubles.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar